ENCUESTA SOBRE LAS EXPECTATIVAS DE LOS ESPECIALISTAS EN ECONOMÍA DEL SECTOR PRIVADO: SEPTIEMBRE
El Banco de México reporta los resultados de la encuesta de septiembre de 2023 sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en economía del sector privado, la cual fue recabada entre 35 grupos de análisis y consultoría económica del sector privado nacional y extranjero.
- Las expectativas de inflación general para el 2023 y 2024 se mantuvieron en 4.66% y 4.00%, respectivamente.
- Las expectativas de crecimiento económico aumentaron, pasando de 3.00% a 3.20% para el 2023 y de 1.60% a 1.90% para el 2024
- Las expectativas sobre el nivel del tipo de cambiopara 2023 y 2024 son de 17.64 y 18.77 pesos por dólar, respectivamente.
Entorno económico y factores que podrían obstaculizar el crecimiento económico de México
Los principales factores que consideraron podrían obstaculizar el crecimiento económico son: la gobernanza (51%) y las condiciones económicas internas (20%). A nivel particular, los principales factores son:
- Los problemas de inseguridad pública (24% de las respuestas);
- La ausencia de cambio estructural (10% de las respuestas);
- Problemas de falta de estado de derecho (12% de las respuestas);
- La incertidumbre política interna (7% de las respuestas);
- La impunidad (7% de las respuestas); y
- La política monetaria que se está aplicando (7% de las respuestas).
El 91% considera que actualmente la economía está mejor que hace un año, y el 56% prevé que el clima de negocios permanecerá igual en los próximos 6 meses, el 26% considera que empeorará y sólo el 18% que mejorará. Con relación a la realización de inversiones, el 39% manifestó que es buen momento para invertir, el 27% indica que es mal momento y el 33% no está seguro.
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