ENCUESTA SOBRE LAS EXPECTATIVAS DE LOS ESPECIALISTAS EN ECONOMÍA DEL SECTOR PRIVADO: NOVIEMBRE
El Banco de México reporta los resultados de la encuesta de noviembre de 2023 sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en economía del sector privado, la cual fue recabada entre 37 grupos de análisis y consultoría económica del sector privado nacional y extranjero.
- Las expectativas de inflación general para el 2023 y 2024 se prevén en 4.54% y 4.00%, respectivamente.
- Las expectativas de crecimiento económico volvieron a aumentar, pasando de 3.29% a 3.40% para el 2023 y de 2.00% a 2.10% para el 2024.
- Se revisaron a la baja las expectativas sobre el nivel del tipo de cambio para 2023 y 2024, situándose en 17.7 y 18.69 pesos por dólar, respectivamente.
ENTORNO ECONÓMICO Y FACTORES QUE PODRÍAN OBSTACULIZAR EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE MÉXICO
Los principales factores que consideraron podrían obstaculizar el crecimiento económico son: la gobernanza (50%) y las condiciones económicas internas (21%). A nivel particular, los principales factores son:
- Los problemas de inseguridad pública (24% de las respuestas);
- La ausencia de cambio estructural (12% de las respuestas);
- Problemas de falta de estado de derecho (11% de las respuestas);
- La corrupción (5% de las respuestas);
- La incertidumbre política interna (5% de las respuestas) y
- La impunidad (5% de las respuestas)
Nueve de cada diez considera que actualmente la economía está mejor que hace un año. Con relación al clima de negocios, el 51% prevé que permanecerá igual en los próximos 6 meses, el 26% considera que empeorará y el 23% que mejorará. Con respecto a la realización de inversiones, aumentaron los especialistas que consideran que es buen momento para invertir pasando de 33% a 44%, el 18% considera que es mal momento y el 38% no está seguro.
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