Encuesta Banxico diciembre 2023

Temas de actualidad

ENCUESTA SOBRE LAS EXPECTATIVAS DE LOS ESPECIALISTAS EN ECONOMÍA DEL SECTOR PRIVADO: DICIEMBRE

El Banco de México reporta los resultados de la encuesta de diciembre de 2023 sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en economía del sector privado, la cual fue recabada entre 35 grupos de análisis y consultoría económica del sector privado nacional y extranjero.

  • La expectativa de inflación general para el cierre del 2023 se prevé en 4.44%, para el 2024 y 2025 se pronostica en 4.00% y 3.72%, respectivamente.
  • Las expectativas de crecimiento económico aumentaron en el transcurso del año. En la encuesta de enero los especialistas esperaban que para el 2023 el PIB sería de 0.98%, en la de diciembre se prevé que cierre en 3.4%. Para el 2024 y 2025 se espera un crecimiento de 2.29% y 2.0%, respectivamente.
  • Se revisaron a la baja las expectativas sobre el nivel del tipo de cambio para 2023 y 2024, situándose en 17.57 y 18.53 pesos por dólar, respectivamente. Para el 2025 se prevé un tipo de cambio de 19.25 pesos por dólar.

ENTORNO ECONÓMICO Y FACTORES QUE PODRÍAN OBSTACULIZAR EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE MÉXICO

Los principales factores que consideraron podrían obstaculizar el crecimiento económico son: la gobernanza (50%) y las condiciones económicas internas (18%). A nivel particular, los principales factores son:

  • Los problemas de inseguridad pública (24% de las respuestas);
  • La ausencia de cambio estructural (12% de las respuestas);
  • Problemas de falta de estado de derecho (10% de las respuestas);
  • La incertidumbre política interna (8% de las respuestas); y
  • La política monetaria que se está aplicando (5% de las respuestas).

El 94% considera que actualmente la economía está mejor que hace un año. Con relación al clima de negocios, el 46% prevé que permanecerá igual en los próximos 6 meses, el 29% considera que empeorará y el 26% que mejorará. Con respecto a la realización de inversiones, el 43% de los especialistas considera que es buen momento para invertir, el 20% que es mal momento y el 37% no está seguro.

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